New APPS

Not very well, claims a study recently published in Nature.   The principle claim is that "laypeople interpret IPCC statements as conveying probabilities closer to 50% than intended by the IPCC authors."  In other words, if the IPCC uses a term to convey that a hypothesis is 90% likely, people intepret it to mean that the hypothesis is significantly less than 90% likely.   And mutatis mutandis if the hypothesis is highly unlikely:  people intepret the phrase to mean something closer to 50% then the authors of the report intend.